Crude Daily Commentary for 3.19.09

Crude futures are logging fundamentally significant gains, ignoring the higher than expected inventory report. Crude futures have cleared the psychological $50/bbl mark as the Dollar depreciates across the board. Since OPEC values Crude in Dollars, a weakening Dollar makes Crude much more attractive to buyers.

Additionally, investors are hoping the quantitative easing initiated by the Fed will help boost manufacturing and production and consequentially consumption of Crude.

This is due to the fact that a weaker Dollar makes U. S. exports much more desirable to Dollar paired countries. With $50/bbl cleared, crude futures are now free to test January highs. Therefore, we could see the continuation of near-term gains, particularly if the S&P futures can bust through 800.

Fundamentally, we find supports of $50.98/bbl, $50.53/bbl, $50.03/bbl, and $49.49/bbl. The $50/bbl becomes a psychological cushion. To the topside, we see resistances of $51.56/bbl, $52.09/bbl, $52.53/bbl, and $53.18/bbl. Crude futures are currently trading at $50.91/bbl.

Crude Daily Commentary for 3.19.09

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