S&P Daily Commentary for 3.9.09
The S&P futures are set to open lower again on Monday with the S&P futures trading in the red pre-market. Friday's late session rally was encouraging in the fact that investors are starting to bite on oversold conditions, signs of a new bottom coming.
However, a high level of uncertainty is still swirling around the financial world and the problems that plagued equities last week remain unanswered. While the U. S. won't report any significant economic data until Thursday, the week is filled with keynote speeches from members of the Fed and Treasury.
Hence, while it looks like the S&P is under more near-term selling pressure, if the government can issue a plan regarding the major banks and car manufacturers currently priced for bankruptcy, this action could be the start of a new bottom followed by base building.
Therefore, even if the S&P sells off again on Monday, we expect a furious rally coming this week. The Pound is presently crashing against the Dollar following large losses in HSBC and Britain nationalizing Lloyd's Bank, a negative sign for U. S. equities.
Meanwhile, Crude is selling off Monday morning and the 30 Year T-Bond futures appear primed for a pop. Hence, the correlations are confirming another downwards movement in the S&P futures. Fundamentally, we find resistance of 681.5 with additional resistances hanging at 687.75, 696.75, and 702.75. The 700 level will serve as a key psychological barrier for the near-term.
To the downside, we see support of 670.75 with 2nd tier waiting at 665. We can't find any other near-term supports, usually a negative sign. The next psychological cushion should be just above 650. The S&P futures are currently trading at 677.25.
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