Gold is following the consolidation of the Dollar and U.S. equities while ignoring the pop in crude.  The precious metal seems range bound for the immediate-term as investors await the heavily-weighted economic data coming later in the week.  Gold has logged larger volume on its down-bars than up-bars on the 1-hour during its upswing beginning dating 6/23, while volume on the 4-hour has been rather tame.

Therefore, the present upturn of gold has been limited to a sub-$950/oz reality.  As a result, the near-term momentum is tilted in favor of the bears as the GBP/USD and EUR/USD fight near-term downtrends of their own.  The overall behavior of gold reflects that of the market as a whole with investors uncertain whether to bank on a global economic recovery or a new leg down.

We expect volatility to pick-up beginning late Tuesday/Wednesday with key unemployment, housing, and manufacturing data pouring in from around the globe along.  Additionally, the ECB will make a monetary policy decision on Thursday.  Hence, while gold may be subdued for the immediate-term, investors shouldn't get too complacent.  The near-term key for gold to the downside will be holding 6/15 and 6/16 lows.  Important near-term barriers to the upside are our 1st and 2nd tier downtrend lines along with 6/26 highs.  

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