The Cable snapped after August 3rd lows failed to hold their ground. Friday’s sell-side action was simply too much for the currency pair to handle, and the GBP/USD has proceeded to flop towards the 1.66 area as we anticipated. There’s continual downward pressure on GBP/USD and EUR/USD as FX investors head for safety. Meanwhile, the Pound is experiencing relative weakness in light of the BOE’s $84 billion QE injection last week, as indicated by an upturn in the EUR/GBP. However, even though further immediate-term losses in the GBP/USD appear likely, the currency pair has a strong support zone approaching.

The Cable has experienced immense consolidation around the 1.65 level in the past, and there’s no reason to believe this behavior should change any time soon. Therefore, with 1.65 and our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines within reach, we believe any immediate-term losses could be halted by these technical cushions. In the meantime, crude and the S&P futures are consolidating above their respective psychological levels, $70/bbl and 1000. As long as these investment vehicles hold strong, the Cable should forego any further technically significant setbacks. Meanwhile, investors should keep an eye on sell-side action to deem whether the Cable’s pullback has the juice to drop below its aforementioned technical cushions.

All is quiet on the data front until Britain releases its BRC Retail Sales Monitor and RICS House Price Balance numbers late Monday. A continual rise in housing prices could help solidify a temporary bottom in the Cable. Furthermore, investors will keep a close eye on key Chinese economic data. We could witness a broad-based Dollar depreciation if the Chinese numbers come in better than expected. China is helping pull the entire global economy out of the gutter, so outperformance in China could lift both the Pound and the Euro. Meanwhile, we’ll monitor the Cable’s correlation with the S&P futures since we witnessed a large appreciation of the Dollar on Friday despite stability in U. S. equities. Though we are not tossing the GBP/USD’s positive correlation with the S&P futures, we are certainly monitoring the situation closely.

As for the upside, an encouraging development would be for the GBP/USD to solidify above our 3rd tier uptrend line. However, the Cable has quite an uphill battle, including July 31st highs and our 2nd tier downtrend line. On the other hand, any climb above our top 1.6651 resistance could result in an additional immediate-term pop in the Pound. We maintain our negative immediate-term outlook on the GBP/USD, though losses should be limited with strong supports on the horizon. The Cable’s medium
-term uptrend is still safe, and the currency pair would need a hefty technical reversal to alter its path.

Present Price: 1.6570

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