Until a few years ago, political analysts argued that coalition governments are an aberration and that single-party rule was the preferred form. That thinking has since changed as it becomes obvious that coalition politics is here to stay. None of the parties are in a position to get an absolute majority on their own, and any government that is likely to come to power in the coming election or even in the next election, is most likely to be a coalition government. The number of seats won by Congress and the BJP has declined to less than 300 seats between them and around 50 per cent of the vote while that of the regional and state parties increased to 159 and 28 per cent of the vote in 2004.

As the 2009 general election nears, there are two big coalition blocs in the fray— he Congress-led United Progressive Alliance and the BJP-led the National Democratic Alliance propped up by a host of regional and state-based parties eager to share the spoils of office. However, the two big parties leading the bloc are not in the best of health. Congress, for example, is unlikely to improve its tally in four crucial states — Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu —which account for 200 seats. The BJP’s support is concentrated in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, and Karnataka. With these two parties failing to expand their support base, the field is wide open for regional players to assume national roles.

Several state-based parties opposed to both the Congress and the BJP, such as the Left Parties, BSP, AIADMK, Telegu Desam Party and Janata Dal (Secular), have announced the formation of a third front. It is unlikely that without the support of the Congress or the BJP this front could form the next government. Besides the third front lacks cohesion and is yet to crystallise properly, but it would be tactless to dismiss it for what some of its constituents represent — non-elite politics. The other two coalitions may have no option but to do business with some of these parties after the polls. An interesting thing to watch for would be the way AIADMK and BSP will turn in the post-poll period and whether the Left Front would be prepared to extend support to a minority Congress government.

Very few political parties have allowed their professed secularism or an egalitarian orientation to stand in the way of exploring ways to increase their share of seats in the Lok Sabha to maximise their leverage and power in the post-poll scenario. Thus we have witnessed in the past few weeks all sorts of political possibilities with Mulayam Singh Yadav suggesting a possible alliance with the BJP or Jayalalitha making overtures to the Congress. Such promiscuity has blurred the boundaries between the three main alliances. This marks a departure from the 2004 elections when there was a conscious attempt to distinguish the UPA from the NDA on the grounds of the secular-communal divide and the promise of inclusive governance. This led the Left parties to support the Congress to keep the BJP out of power even though their perceptions differed especially in economic and foreign policies, resulting in the eventual withdrawal of Left support on the Indo-US nuclear deal.

Indian coalitions are principally electoral coalitions. The fragmentation of the party system lies behind the rise of coalition governments and not any major institutional reform or institutionally induced federalisation as such. The succession of coalition governments since the 1990s, although reflecting the expanding process of democratisation and diversity, have not demonstrated a common ideological purpose. Most coalitions have been formed primarily to aggregate votes in view of the imperatives of the first-past-the-post electoral system. The last-minute character of most of these alliances and the shift from one alliance to another reinforces this trend.

So what is the future of alliances? Given the fragmentation of the polity, for the foreseeable future, governance will be in the hands of one or another heterogeneous coalition. The existing alliances appear to be vulnerable to shifting alignments which means a range of outcomes is possible in 2009 and government formation will be determined by post-poll alliances. Whichever permutation or combination comes to power, the states will exert even greater clout after what promises to be a fascinating election. Coalitions can provide coherent and effective governance when the cementing force that binds alliances is that of a broadly shared political and policy

vision. This is not the case with alliance politics of the present. But it is mistake to think that a government led by a single party leads to better policy decisions and delivery. If anything, the lack of serious debate on public policies within parties and Parliament and more importantly lack of substantive movement towards secular inclusiveness and reduction of inequalities are the key issues proving detrimental to national development.

The writer is a professor of Jawaharlal Nehru University

Zoya Hasan/ DNA-Daily News & Analysis Source: 3D Syndication