EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 3.19.09
The EUR/USD rocketed higher with the Dollar weakening significantly against all major pairs in reaction to the Federal Reserve deciding to inject $300 Billion into quantitative easing.
The quantitative easing plan requires massive money printing, increasing the U. S. money supply considerably. The Fed intended to make U. S. exports attractive, and the Fed clearly accomplished its intention.
The EUR/USD has catapulted into a clear uptrend after the currency pair was still contemplating whether to duck back into its downtrend. Since the ECB has kept its benchmark rate at a reasonable level while avoiding quantitative easing of its own, the Euro is thriving after the Fed's decision.
However, Bernanke's move places considerable pressure on the EU since German production and manufacturing levels were already falling off a cliff prior to America's announcement.
Now that the Euro is appreciating wildly against all of its major pairs, the development makes EU exports even less attractive, putting the economy in a tight corner.
Therefore, we would not be surprised to see the ECB lower rates more than expected at its next meeting to try and cool the appreciation of the Euro. For the meantime, such a significant movement afterwards will create a lasting ripple effect and should continue its move higher despite any temporary profit taking it experiences.
We placed three new uptrend lines on our chart to give investors an idea of upcoming trend obstacles. Fundamentally, we see supports of 1.3427, 1.3371, 1.3304, and 1.3238. To the topside, find fresh resistances of 1.3494, 1.3554, 1.3624, 1.3666, and 1.3724. The EUR/USD is currently exchanging at 1.3509.
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