EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 3.13.09

The EUR/USD logged some impressive gains on Thursday, and is inching above our 2nd tier downtrend line on Friday.  The EUR/USD exercised its positive correlation with U.S. equities, ignoring the extremely negative industrial production data from Germany.

However, we expect some near-term profit taking coming up as the currency pair struggles with our 2nd tier and the highly psychological 1.30 level.  The EUR/USD still faces February highs with EU retail sales release pending.

Despite the fundamental obstacles ahead, the EUR/USD has made some considerable moves to the upside.  That being said, the currency pair is not out of the woods yet.  Our 3rd tier downtrend looms, and investors are waiting to see if the S&P can follow through on its rally before committing to a substantial uptrend in the EUR/USD.

Fundamentally, we find support of 1.29120 with additional supports resting at 1.2881, 1.2857, and 1.2834.  To the topside, see resistance at 1.2965 with additional resistances hanging at 1.2996, 1.3022, and 1.3058.  The EUR/USD is currently exchanging at 1.2923.

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 3.13.09

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