Crude Daily Commentary for 3.16.09
Crude futures have sold off sharply after OPEC decided to keep production levels unchanged. Investors were anticipating another supply shock, so the price of crude is paying for the inaction on Monday.
Obama put in a call to the Saudis a week ago, imploring OPEC's most influential country to keep production stable to avoid strangling a limping global economy. The Saudis took notice, and production should remain unchanged until they next meeting in May. The futures are currently finding stability along our uptrend lines, showing there is hope for the uptrend.
Nevertheless, the rally has surely been dented with crude futures trading back below the psychological $45/bbl level. The stability of the price of crude will now depend on the U. S. economy and the demand side of the equation, so expect a strong correlation with the S&P futures for the near-term.
Fundamentally, we find supports of $43.60/bbl, $42.94bbl, $42.56/bbl, and $42.12/bbl. The $40/bbl area becomes a psychological cushion with $45/bbl serving as a key psychological barrier. To the topside, we see resistances of $44.59/bbl, $44.94/bbl, $45.66/bbl, and $46.29/bbl. Crude futures are currently trading at $43.99/bbl.
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