Crude Daily Commentary for 3.12.09

Crude futures sold off sharply on Wednesday in reaction to higher than expected weekly inventories. Yesterday's report broke the three week streak of inventories coming in lower than analyst expectations.

OPEC will certainly take the rising inventories into consideration when the oil producing countries meet on March 15th. Further hampering the price of crude is news that production is declining at a rapid pace in manufacturing powerhouses such as Germany, Japan, and China.

Declining production results in lower consumption of Crude, placing downward pressure on demand, and consequently price. Crude futures sank below both of our uptrend lines before stabilizing just above our previous bottom-end of $42.43/bbl. It seems Crude futures will recover Thursday, possibly hopping back above our uptrend lines.

Wednesday's selloff may have been an overreaction. If OPEC cuts output by a great amount to exercise its force, we could see a large surge to the upside. Fundamentally, we find supports of $43.04/bbl, $42.51/bbl, $41.93/bbl, and $41.33/bbl. The $45/bbl area serves as a psychological barrier with $40/bbl acting as a cushion. To the topside, we see resistances of $44.03/bbl, $44.67/bbl, $45.27/bbl, and $45.81/bbl. Crude futures are currently trading at $43.34/bbl.

Crude Daily Commentary for 3.12.09

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