Nickel settled down -0.11% at 1148.60 after the update that China’s nickel ore and concentrate imports fell by 32.4% y/y and 10% m/m to 3.66Mt in June. Indonesia’s nickel ore exports to China remained at a low of 4kt due to Indonesia’s mineral ore export ban. The June data once again reflects a dominant share of imports from the Philippines, as China’s ferronickel smelters move to secure Filipino nickel ore imports in response to Indonesia’s mineral ore export ban. Indonesian nickel ore exports to China steadily increased from August 2013 to January 2014, likely reflecting a stock build by Chinese ferronickel smelters before the mineral export ban took effect on 12 January 2014. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its price forecast for nickel as the market is swinging to a deficit next year following an ore-export ban in Indonesia. The ban by Indonesia, which accounted for more than 20 percent of global nickel supply in 2013, is unlikely to be eased until the second half of 2015. Vale, the world’s second-largest nickel producer, said output for the base metal declined 5.4 percent in the quarter to 61,700 tons as the company undertook planned maintenance work at its Sudbury plants. Investors should be focused on US July manufacturing PMI and pending home sales for June due for release late on Monday, as well as the ongoing violence between Palestine and Israel. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.03% to settled at 4568 while prices down -1.3 rupee, now Nickel is getting support at 1140.4 and below same could see a test of 1132.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1159.4, a move above could see prices testing 1170.1.

Trading Ideas:

Nickel trading range for the day is 1132.1-1170.1.

Nickel settled down after the update that China’s nickel ore and concentrate imports fell by 32.4% y/y

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its price forecast for nickel as the market is swinging to a deficit next year following an ore-export ban in Indonesia.

U.S. will release the monthly non-farm payrolls report for July later in the week as well as a preliminary estimate on second quarter economic growth.