Rmseed settled up 0.8% at 4284 due to lower supply concerns and on improvement in domestic demand due to festive season. According to latest USDA report, global rapeseed production is forecast to decline 3.5 million tons in 2015/16 as a slight decrease in area reduces total output to 68.1 million tons. In Europe, Oil World has estimated the production of 22 million tons as compared to 24.1 million tons in 2014/15. Prices of the mustard seed were also supported as consumption of mustard oil increases during the festival months of Aug-Nov, it may prompt crushing units/traders to buy RM Seed and create stockpiles before the actual demand comes in the market. As per SEA’s latest data the overall export of mustard meal during July 2015 stood at 0.08 lakh tons versus 0.87 lakh tons in July 2014. Global rapeseed ending stocks could plunge to 3.4 million tons in 2015/16, a 12-year low, as stated in August USDA report. Further reductions of 2015/16 rapeseed yields for the United Kingdom, Czech Republic, and Romania cut forecast EU production by 300,000 tons this month to 21.1 million. EU rapeseed imports will not compensate for these lost supplies, however. Also this month, a lower area estimate trimmed Ukraine rapeseed production 100,000 tons to 1.7 million and led to an equivalent decline in the forecast of 2015/16 exports to 1.4 million tons. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.01% to settled at 78640 while prices up 34 rupee, now Rmseed is getting support at 4259 and below same could see a test of 4235 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4306, a move above could see prices testing 4329.

Trading Ideas:

Rmseed trading range for the day is 4235-4329.

Mustard seed prices ended with gains due to lower supply concerns and on improvement in domestic demand due to festive season.

According to latest USDA report, global rapeseed production is forecast to decline 3.5 million tons in 2015/16.

NCDEX accredited warehouses mustard seed stocks dropped by 500 tonnes to 64869 tonnes.

In the Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the price gained 47.9 rupee to 4417.4 rupees per 100kgs.