The RISK was higher through recent sessions. The market is optimistic ahead of the speech of Barack Obama today, when he may announce a new $300 - $400 billion package to boost the economy and create jobs, after poor NFP numbers on Friday.

We are technical traders, not fundamental, so based on the wave structure; we believe this recovery is only temporary. We however, did not expect oil to trade so high, but regarding the 4h chart, move from August lows is still considered as corrective.

As we look across the charts, we see that commodity currencies are still showing the clearest wave structure against the US dollar. All currencies, such as Aud, Nzd and Cad fell in five waves against the buck since September 1st, so we definitely expect that this trend will continue. In fact, we also noticed that commodity currencies are not showing any significant strength as we would expect during current rise in stock and commodity prices. So, once/if RISK finds resistance, commodity currencies should continue lower.

Between these commodity currencies New Zealand dollar was very weak, which should continue lower once current minor corrective bounce completes, as shown on the chart. We expect more weakness on that one!

On the next chart you will also notice how weak New Zealand dollar really is compared to Oil and S&P Futures.