Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and other currencies witnessed support from lower levels and were trading firm during the weekend. BTC briefly went below $60K mark and has taken support from those levels. Currently, $70K for BTC and $2,000 for ETH will remain crucial levels. Markets appear to be digesting excess leverage, fading marginal demand, and recalibrating expectations after a powerful run-up. For investors and traders alike, Bitcoin’s current range represents a battleground between structural strength and cyclical fatigue.

Bitcoin’s Recent Price Action Reflects a Market Searching for Footing

Over recent sessions, Bitcoin has been trading in the low-70,000-dollar range, following a sharp drawdown earlier in the week that briefly pushed prices below 62,000 dollars. A February 6 market recap placed BTC near 70,178 dollars, representing a 24-hour rebound of more than 11 percent, yet still leaving the asset over 14 percent below the prior week’s highs.

From a short-term technical perspective, analysts have identified 71,467 dollars as a key intraday resistance level. A sustained move through that zone, particularly without an immediate pullback, could open a path toward the 72,000-dollar area. On the daily chart, 71,673 dollars stands out as a pivotal threshold. A confirmed break and hold above that level, according to technical models, could fuel momentum toward 75,000 dollars, with an outside possibility of a move back toward the 80,000-dollar region if the weekly close proves decisive.

These levels underscore a market attempting to stabilize after a violent liquidation phase, where price discovery remains highly sensitive to both sentiment shifts and broader liquidity conditions.

On-Chain Signals Turn Decisively Bearish as Demand Fades

A growing share of on-chain indicators now point to a distinctly bearish seasonal environment for Bitcoin. Analysis linked to CryptoQuant highlights that its internal Bull Score Index, which stood near 80 during the October peak, has collapsed to zero following a major liquidation event and a prolonged grind lower.

Several structural red flags stand out. Bitcoin has declined 23 percent since falling below its 365-day moving average on November 12, 2025—a breach widely regarded as technically significant. Analysts describe the current drawdown as worse than the early-2022 bear phase when measured by trend deterioration and realized losses.

Equally concerning, price has slipped below the lower band of the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price indicator, a level that previously acted as near-ultimate support during the bull phase. As a result, analysts now identify the 70,000–60,000-dollar zone as the next major on-chain support cluster.

The prevailing conclusion from this camp is not that Bitcoin has entered a terminal bear market, but that demand has materially weakened, liquidity conditions have tightened, and downside risks remain elevated during this late-cycle correction.

ETF Flows and Liquidity Metrics Reinforce a Risk-Off Backdrop

Macro-liquidity indicators and flow data further reinforce the risk-off narrative. The Coinbase BTC price premium has remained negative since mid-October, signaling softer U.S. demand relative to offshore markets. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had accumulated more than 46,000 BTC roughly a year ago, have shifted into net selling mode, offloading approximately 15,000 BTC.

Spot demand growth has deteriorated sharply. Annualized spot demand expansion has fallen by 93 percent in just four months, dropping from roughly 1.1 million BTC to about 77,000 BTC. Stablecoin metrics echo the same story: Tether’s 60-day market-cap growth has turned negative, declining by approximately 133 million dollars, a pattern historically associated with bearish or late-cycle environments.

Taken together, these data points suggest that much of the incremental demand for this cycle has already been absorbed. The market is now contending with excess leverage, tightening liquidity, and reduced appetite from marginal buyers.

Structural Strength Persists Despite Distribution Signals

A longer-horizon market-structure assessment from Coinbase and Glassnode paints a more balanced picture. Bitcoin continues to command roughly 59 percent market dominance, even as mid- and small-cap digital assets struggle to retain gains. This resilience is interpreted as structural strength, with capital rotating defensively toward BTC during periods of stress.

Derivatives positioning also reveals a notable shift. Options open interest has now surpassed perpetual futures open interest, indicating a market increasingly focused on hedging and controlled risk exposure rather than high-leverage speculation.

At the same time, investor behavior suggests an ongoing distribution phase. Approximately 37 percent of Bitcoin’s supply has moved within the past three months, while long-dormant supply has declined modestly. This implies that some long-term holders are taking profits rather than capitulating outright.

Sentiment indicators align with this view. Glassnode’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss metric has transitioned from “Belief” to “Anxiety” following the October liquidation, stabilizing at lower levels without triggering panic—an environment consistent with cautious repositioning rather than mass exit.

Short-Term Technical Outlooks Remain Sharply Divided

Near-term technical opinions diverge meaningfully. A February 7 chart-based analysis outlines a conditional bullish scenario, contingent on Bitcoin decisively breaking resistance in the 71,500–71,700-dollar range. Should that occur, analysts see scope for a move toward 75,000 dollars within days, with 74,434 dollars identified as an important interim level. A strong weekly close above that threshold could reopen the door to the 80,000-dollar zone.

In contrast, a separate forecast framed around a descending bearish channel adopts a far more cautious stance. Under this model, any rally toward 73,405 dollars is viewed as corrective, not impulsive, with downside risk reasserting itself thereafter. The bearish scenario targets levels below 36,775 dollars over a broader horizon, while identifying 88,405 dollars as the invalidation point for this thesis. A confirmed weekly close below 59,405 dollars would, in this framework, significantly strengthen the bearish case.

The split underscores the market’s current fragility: technical setups remain highly sensitive to near-term price acceptance or rejection around key levels.

Macro Forces Reassert Bitcoin’s Risk-Asset Identity

From a macro perspective, analysts emphasize that Bitcoin has reverted to behaving like a high-beta risk asset, rather than a defensive hedge. Antonio Di Giacomo of XS.com characterizes the recent sell-off as confirmation of a structural shift away from speculation toward capital preservation.

He highlights Bitcoin’s renewed correlation with traditional markets during the correction, including declines in technology equities and broader indices, as evidence of systemic stress and scarce liquidity. The breach of key technical levels triggered nearly 770 million dollars in leveraged long liquidations within 24 hours, reinforcing the notion of an ongoing market “cleansing” phase.

Di Giacomo’s outlook remains guarded. He argues that sustained stabilization will require both easier global financial conditions and the rebuilding of credible technical support above recent lows. Until then, rallies are likely to remain fragile.

Stress Tests Highlight Tail Risks Without Predicting Collapse

Extreme downside scenarios are increasingly part of institutional risk management discussions. During a February 5 corporate earnings call, Phong Le, CEO of Strategy Inc., outlined an internal stress-test scenario contemplating a 90 percent Bitcoin drawdown, implying a price near 8,000 dollars.

Crucially, this was not presented as a forecast, but as a prudential planning exercise. The scenario represents the level at which the company’s Bitcoin holdings would merely match its net debt, underscoring how seriously large holders consider tail-risk even while maintaining long-term exposure.

Constructive Signals Persist Beneath the Surface

Despite the caution, several constructive elements remain intact. Bitcoin’s sustained dominance suggests that capital continues to favor BTC during periods of stress. The shift toward options-based hedging points to a more mature and disciplined market structure, potentially reducing the likelihood of disorderly crashes.

Technically, the possibility of a relief rally toward 75,000–80,000 dollars remains viable if resistance levels give way. Such a move would not invalidate the broader corrective phase but could offer tactical opportunities for active traders.

Importantly, even bearish on-chain assessments frame the current environment as late-cycle cooling, not systemic failure. ETF outflows and negative stablecoin growth are viewed as typical of cycles where speculative capital exits, leaving a more resilient investor base behind.

Strategic Takeaways for Market Participants

Taken together, the emerging consensus is nuanced. Near-term sentiment is cautious to bearish, shaped by weakening demand, ETF outflows, and tightening liquidity. The 70,000–60,000-dollar band stands as the primary battleground. A decisive weekly break below the high-50,000s would materially raise the probability of a deeper bearish leg.

At the same time, Bitcoin retains structural strength, institutional infrastructure, and market leadership. The current phase appears less like an ending and more like a reckoning within a maturing cycle.

For investors, the implication is clear: respect downside risks, monitor real-time demand proxies such as ETF flows and stablecoin supply, and remain alert to both the upside potential of technical rebounds and the non-trivial tail risks highlighted by current research.