USD Technical Forex Analysis for Daily Traders
The USD is under pressure this morning after starting a holiday-shortened week about flat in Asia. Tokyo had a holiday today leaving a lot of Asian players on the sidelines making for slow and thinner trade; traders report that stops are building on both sides of the market after last week's neutral close and Friday's USD retreat. Equities provided a bit of lift to the majors as follow-on buying of Asian markets and Europe holding firm ahead of US trade. DJOA futures are called to open higher on Wall street which is no doubt keeping the majors on the offensive to start the day. USD/JPY rallied higher with equities as expected but was unable to clear above the 96.00 handle with any conviction; high prints at 96.09 were offered to cap the rate before heading lower.
Traders note that most desks expect further price declines in the rate as the Yen technically remains the strongest currency on the board. GBP held Friday's lows with a low print at 1.4840 before reversing and slowly building momentum into highs; high prints in late Europe at 1.5046 with traders noting stops above the psychological 1.5000 area getting hit. EURO held above Friday's lows as well; low prints at 1.2566 in European trade after starting flat in two-way action in Asia. Traders note that this morning's IFO sentiment index came in lower than forecast at 85.8 and traders offered the rate lower but were unable to find stops; high prints at 1.2720 in late European trade as the rate reversed losses on positive equities. Traders note that both GBP and EURO saw semi-official names and an Asian sovereign on the offers overnight but size was smaller suggesting that selling interest from large traders may be dropping a bit. USD/CHF opened lower and held off an attempt to rally; high prints at 1.2228 area under Friday's highs with lows at 1.2124 holding previous resistance suggesting that stops will be building as expected around the 1.2080 area. Aggressive traders can sell strength in the rate above the 1.2180 area in my view.
USD/CAD is also under pressure staying near lows at 1.2650 area with a low print at 1.2635 in early New York making for a clean sweep against the USD to start the week. IN my view the USD is putting in a top at current levels continuing to make signs that buyers are running out and that the majors are continuing to consolidate ahead of a solid short-squeeze. With a holiday-shortened week it is possible that traders will square their books ahead of the four day weekend and with a market that is heavily long that would mean some significant selling pressure. Look for the USD's fortunes to ebb and flow with equities today; a higher close on Wall Street would likely encourage the EURO to rally a bit.
Overnight Asia/Europe
• USD opens flat to slightly better, reverses as equities rise
• US Data due today likely to be USD unfriendly
• Tokyo closed for holiday
Today's Economic Reports
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 10:00am USD Existing Home Sales
• Very light day for everyone on Monday
Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Prelim GDP q/q
• 8:30am USD Prelim GDP Price Index q/q
• 9:00am USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
• 10:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence
• 10:00am USD HPI m/m
• 10:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index
Forex Analysis by Jason Alan Jankovsky at ForexPros.com. For more details about Forex Trading and Tips for decent earnings through Forex Trading, Please check http://www.forexpros.com