Forex Update

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 4.16.09

Gold Daily Commentary for 4.16.09

Not much has changed in gold as it trades sideways between our 1st and 2nd tier downtrend lines. The precious metal has given us no reason to alter our negative stance and gold certainly has its hands full with the psychological $900/oz and our 2nd tier downtrend line.

We anticipate gold to gravitate towards its natural negative correlation with U. S. equities during critical moments. Hence, the precious metal is still hinting at another breakout in the S&P futures with the back of the uptrend broken.

Crude Daily Commentary for 4.16.09

Crude futures continue to drag along our 1st tier uptrend line as investors debate trends and whether to leave $50/bbl in the past.

It seems investors could reach a decision soon with our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend and downtrend lines reaching their respective inflection points. We notice the same pattern of inflection in the EUR/USD, meaning the markets could get very volatile at the end of the week.

The data from the U. S. over the past 48 hours continues to send mixed signals regarding the state of the American economy. The confusion is reflected in crude futures with investors unsure whether to bank on a recovery.

Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 4.16.09

The 30 Year T-Bond futures are topping out again despite a lack of significant movement from U. S. equities. The 30 Year is obeying its downtrend, and its decline could be a cause for concern if there isn't a counterbalancing rally in the S&P futures.

We still haven't seen that follow through to the upside in either the 30 or 10 Year futures after March's furious rally.

Therefore, even though the Fed has already purchased over $50 Billion worth of government debt, the level of quantitative easing combined with normal investor purchase of debt may not be sufficient to counter to the massive supply required for America's economic stimulus package.

S&P Daily Commentary for 4.16.09

The S&P futures are consolidating with the battle heating up between the bulls and the bears. We continue to receive mixed data from the U. S., preventing investors from committing fully to the concept of an economic recovery.

The theme at present is improvement in manufacturing coupled with a collapsing housing market while producer and consumer prices trend downwards. Although analysts predict the true economic recovery will begin with a turnaround in housing, the fact that all of the data coming from the U. S. isn't overwhelmingly negative is a relief.

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 4.15.09

The EUR/USD is consolidating above our 1st tier uptrend line, holding up relatively well considering the brisk selloff on Wall Street in reaction to disappointing U. S. economic data. The EUR/GBP continues its downturn with the GBP/USD looking to break out of our 2nd tier uptrend line.

Hence, we're witnessing the perpetuation of status quo among the Euro, Pound, and Dollar due to a lack of significant data from both the EU and Britain.

The Euro is still at a disadvantage with the ECB taking a vague monetary stance, and uncertainty hardly ever yields a positive performance in price. Will the ECB cut its benchmark further or initiate unorthodox liquidity processes? Nobody knows at this point.

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