Baghdad  - Throughout Iraq's provincial election campaign, the campaign posters of secular candidates can be seen across the country side by side with those of the well-financed religious powers.

This cohabitation is a new phenomenon, and highlights the subtle but increasingly important struggle between the more established religious parties and newer secular forces.

Religious groups are participating in these elections with greater financial resources and regional support, with much of it believed to be coming from Iran.

On the other side, secular parties are banking on popular disenchantment with the performance of the clerical coalitions, who dominated the last provincial vote in 2005.

In Najaf, the hub of Shiite political power in Iraq, a striking phenomenon is that most of the 57 political groups and 1,070 candidates competing for 41 seats are nominally "independent".

Even on religious lists, there are numerous independent candidates.

The phenomenon is widespread. Observers say that independent candidates are seeking to take advantage of widespread dissatisfaction with religious parties in power that have failed to provide basic public services for much of their provinces.

While some Iraqi pundits believe that the inclusion of more independents on religious lists is a tactical step to gain more votes, others say it is a sign of greater political changes.

For the second group, this means that the results of the January 31 elections are far from being guaranteed to run in favour of Islamist groups as was the case in 2005.

Since 2003, the role of political Islam in modern Iraqi politics has been vital - in direct contrast to the enforced secularism of the Saddam Hussein era.

But more than five years after the dictator's fall, the role of religion in politics is also in flux. Islamist parties are also being challenged on their record, not only on their relationship to religion.

"A fierce competition will take place between religious and secular forces in this year's elections. Unlike 2005, secular forces, politically absent for nearly five years, are now more prepared to take part in the elections," Hussein Hafez, Professor of Political Science at Baghdad University told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa.

Hafez explained that the electoral programmes of secularist forces were more realistic and reflective to the daily needs of the man in the street in this election round.

"Iraqi public opinion will shift this time to their favour," Hafez said.

In a recent poll conducted by al-Sabah newspaper in ten Iraqi cities, democratic and secularist powers were leading with 27 per cent, independent powers came next with
23 per cent and third came religious ones with only 10 per cent.

Secularist Iraqi MP Taha al-Lahibi believes that the religious powers have been tarnished and may find themselves pushed backwards.

"Islamic powers in Iraq used religion only as a cover. Now they have been exposed in front of the voters," he said.

The religious parties themselves are divided.

Unlike in 2005, when the grand Shiite coalition, the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), triumphed as one bloc, January's elections will see competition in the provinces between two major components: the ruling al-Daawa and the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC).

The balance of power in much of the Shiite south will be divided into two major blocs, with the first bloc led by the Daawa party and formed by six other parties, according to observers.

On the other side would be the SIIC-led coalition, the "Shahid al-Mihrab" (Martyr of the Pulpit) coalition, which is made up of five other parties, analystists said.

"No one can be sure whether Islamists or secularists will win, but one thing is certain, the political map will change. The huge number of candidates means that political powers that used to control the arena will fade to the benefit of other emerging powers," former Iraqi oil minister Ibrahim Bahr el-Oloum told dpa. (dpa)