MIT researchers come up with a new way of predicting the onset of rogue waves

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) researchers have come up with a new way of predicting the onset of rogue waves, also known as killer waves.

So far, efforts for their prediction were restricted to expensive, inefficient, and time-consuming computer models that were focused on mapping out every single wave in a water body.

Published on February 11, in the Journal of Fluid Mechanics, the latest method is simpler, easier, and faster. Aim of the new method is to give sailors and sea-platform workers a time range of two to three minutes to get ready, prepare, including closing down vital systems.

Coauthor Themis Sapsis, the American Bureau of Shipping Career Development Assistant Professor of Mechanical Engineering at MIT, said, “It’s precise in sense that it’s telling us very accurately location and time that this rare event will happen. We have range of possibilities, and we can say that this will be dangerous wave, and you’d better do something. That’s really all you need”.

Among the most unpredictable threats that are faced by shipping or sea-based platforms is the unexpected attack of such ocean monsters, which can come up from nowhere rising up to eight times as high as the water around.

The latest tool functions in the form of an algorithm. It hunts via data collected regarding surrounding waves, examining indications of clusters that may coalesce and crest into one of such behemoths.

The new tool considers the length and height of a wave group to calculate the chances of it changing into a rogue wave.

In an MIT news release, Dr. Sapsis said that with the help of data and equations, they have determined for any particular sea state the wave groups that can grow into rogue waves. Out of those, they examined just the ones, having the highest chances of changing into a rare event. Dr. Sapsis added that it’s very efficient to do.