BEML, NHPC, BHEL, NMDC and Coal India were among public sector stocks that witnessed positive moves on Friday. Among losers in PSU segment were RITES, RCF, NTPC Green Energy, NALCO, Power Finance Corporation and Dredging Corporation. IRFC closed the session flat but we can expect higher volatility in some of the public sector stocks on Tuesday as overall markets are expected to face higher volatility.

Indian Markets Expected to Remain Volatile due to Geo-political Crisis and Trump Tariffs

India’s benchmark Nifty 50 index kicked off the April derivatives series on a softer note, ending lower by about 0.3% on March 28. Despite the decline, the index continued to trade above all critical moving averages, with both short- and medium-term averages maintaining an upward trajectory — a technical signal often interpreted as bullish by market participants.

However, investor sentiment remains cautious amid the anticipated announcement of new trade tariffs by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is expected to detail his policy roadmap this week. Market experts suggest the Nifty could enter a consolidation phase, with support projected in the 23,300–23,400 range. A break below these levels may trigger heavier selling, while any bounceback could face resistance around the 23,800 mark.

Stock Insights – Brief Analysis

RVNL (Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd.)

RVNL remains in a corrective phase, with current price trading well below key Fibonacci levels.

Watch Rs 446.00 as the 50% retracement resistance; a breakout may signal trend reversal.

Strong support may lie closer to Rs 395, and if breached, deeper consolidation could follow.

NHPC Limited

NHPC is relatively stable, hovering between Rs 86 and Rs 90 with healthy dividend yield support.

The Rs 94.70 Fibonacci midpoint serves as a short-term resistance marker.

Sustained move above Rs 96.24 can draw fresh interest, particularly from yield-seeking investors.

IRFC (Indian Railway Finance Corporation)

IRFC is consolidating after a sharp rally, currently trending near the lower retracement bands.

The 50% Fibonacci level of Rs 168.52 is a key pivot to regain bullish momentum.

If the stock breaks Rs 177.37, it may test Rs 190+ levels in the short term.

As geopolitical trade tensions rise, several Indian export-oriented industries are under scrutiny for their vulnerability to retaliatory tariff measures.

Pharmaceutical and Chemical Sectors Face Regulatory Headwinds

India’s pharmaceutical industry, a global hub for generic drug manufacturing, stands to lose ground if U.S. tariffs are revised upward. The country currently exports approximately $18 billion worth of pharmaceuticals to the United States, with an existing import tariff of 1% imposed by the U.S. By contrast, India levies a 9.7% duty on U.S. pharmaceutical imports.

A spike in U.S. tariffs could erode the pricing competitiveness of Indian drugmakers in their largest foreign market. Analysts warn that this could pressure the performance of sector heavyweights such as Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, and Cipla, all of which have significant exposure to North American markets.

Auto Sector Faces Fresh Turbulence as U.S. Tariffs Set to Spike

Indian automobile and auto component exports to the U.S. totaled around $2.8 billion last year, with current U.S. import duties at 1%. However, India imposes a 24.1% tariff on similar U.S. imports. In response, the U.S. is reportedly set to implement a 25% reciprocal tariff beginning April 2, in what could be a major disruptor for Indian automotive firms.

Several listed auto stocks have already registered declines exceeding 2% over the past week, as markets priced in the risk of deteriorating trade terms. Auto component manufacturers such as Bharat Forge and Samvardhana Motherson International — both of which derive substantial revenue from the U.S. — are especially vulnerable.

Textiles and Gems Sector Exposed Despite Tariff Parity

While India’s textile and garment exports to the U.S. stood at $10.8 billion, the sector already faces headwinds such as shrinking margins, rising input costs, and subdued global demand. Tariff rates for both countries hover in the 9–10% range, suggesting limited room for negotiation or reprieve.

"The apparel and gems & jewellery industries are especially exposed," said Sonam Srivastava, founder of Wright Research. "The U.S. accounts for nearly 30% of their export volume, and they face tariff differentials of 10–20%, which are difficult to offset operationally."

This makes the sector particularly sensitive to any retaliatory measures, despite being labor-intensive and cost-sensitive.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels