India’s metals major, Hindalco Industries, has laid out a multi-billion-dollar vision to redefine itself as a global engineering solutions powerhouse — pivoting beyond its core identity as a metal producer. In a detailed investor briefing, the company emphasized sustainability, downstream expansion, vertical integration, and technological advancement. Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers has reiterated its 'Buy' recommendation on the stock, with a 12-month target price of Rs 800. This confidence stems from Hindalco’s aggressive capital allocation strategy, diversified growth roadmap, and strong traction across its domestic and global aluminium and copper operations.

Strategic Expansion Anchored in Sustainability and Circularity

Hindalco, through Novelis, is investing approximately $10 billion in sustainable and scalable capacity expansion, reflecting a paradigm shift toward green aluminium.
A cornerstone of this strategy is the ‘3X30’ vision, which aims to increase recycled content in flat rolled products from 63% to 75% by 2030 while cutting carbon emissions per tonne of production from 4 to 3 tonnes. Novelis, Hindalco’s U.S.-based subsidiary and the world’s largest supplier of beverage packaging sheet, is central to this transformation. The Bay Minette project in Alabama — a 600,000-tonne greenfield facility — is on track for commissioning in H2 CY26 and is expected to deliver EBITDA of approximately $1,000 per tonne at full capacity.

Bay Minette to Drive Future Profitability

The Bay Minette facility will be the epicenter of Hindalco’s global expansion — with a scalable, low-cost model built on automation and high-recycled input.
With 85% of engineering work already completed, the plant will not only have a significantly lower carbon footprint but will also consume 30% less labor than traditional setups. Contracts have already been secured for two-thirds of its output — primarily high-margin beverage packaging. A future phase will potentially double its capacity at nearly one-fourth the initial capex per tonne.

Complementing this is an aggressive debottlenecking initiative across its U.S. operations (Logan, Oswego, and Pinda), which is expected to add 175,000 tonnes of capacity at a fraction of greenfield costs — further supporting EBITDA expansion.

Domestic Aluminium Capacity to Exceed 2 Million Tonnes

On the home front, Hindalco is ramping up its upstream aluminium capacity through 180,000 tonnes of smelter expansion at Aditya and evaluating an additional 540,000 tonnes across Aditya and Mahan.
Domestic demand for aluminium is projected to more than double over the next decade, driven by the transport, packaging, and construction sectors. Hindalco is positioning itself as a fully integrated aluminium player, owning 22 bauxite mines and aggressively shifting to captive coal. By FY33, 100% of coal needs will be met via in-house mining, ensuring cost predictability and energy security.

India’s Copper Opportunity Is Just Beginning

Hindalco is doubling down on copper, with a new 300,000-tonne smelter in Dahej and a first-of-its-kind e-waste recycling facility, targeting growth across EVs, renewables, and electronics.
Domestic copper demand is forecasted to grow from 1.13 million tonnes to over 2.5 million tonnes in the next decade. Hindalco, already the second-largest rod producer globally (excluding China), will soon command a total capacity of 721,000 tonnes. The Dahej recycling plant alone will handle 50,000 tonnes of e-waste and can scale to 200,000 tonnes, recovering valuable metals such as gold, silver, and platinum.

Additionally, a dedicated battery-grade copper foil facility (11,500 tonnes) is in the pipeline to support India’s growing EV battery ecosystem.

Downstream Aluminium to Power Margin Expansion

Hindalco is strengthening its downstream presence with a 170,000-tonne foil and can-body stock facility at Aditya and manufacturing contracts for 150,000 EVs annually.
Extrusion capacity — used in automotive and battery casings — is expected to grow from 763,000 tonnes to 2.05 million tonnes over the next decade. With the aluminium foil manufacturing plant at Lapanga expected to be operational by end-CY25, Hindalco is ensuring it captures a bigger slice of India’s energy storage and electric vehicle value chain.

Specialty Alumina to Add Rs 200–250/tonne in EBITDA

The company's Muri refinery is undergoing a transformation to produce 1 million tonnes of specialty alumina, up from 450,000 tonnes.
With domestic and global demand expected to surge from 8.9 million tonnes to 13 million tonnes by FY35, Hindalco’s proprietary products like FUSALOX (used in refractories and abrasives) and Superfine ATH (for cables, electronics, and construction) will play a vital role in margin accretion. This segment alone is expected to boost EBITDA by Rs 120–200 per tonne.

Novelis: Global FRP Leadership Strengthened

Novelis is targeting 5 million tonnes of global flat rolled products (FRP) capacity by FY27, with a focus on high-margin segments like auto, aerospace, and beverage packaging.
Global FRP demand is forecasted to rise from 30.9 million tonnes to 37.7 million tonnes by 2029, with automotive and aerospace sectors providing robust tailwinds. Novelis already leads in both, and its facilities in the EU, China, and North America are optimized for rapid volume and margin expansion.

Cost optimization remains a key theme, with $300 million in targeted savings through shutdown of sub-scale plants and SG&A efficiencies.

Robust Financials, Free Cash Flow, and Valuation Support

Hindalco’s EBITDA is expected to rise from Rs 239 billion in FY24 to Rs 374 billion by FY27, driven by operational leverage, capex realization, and product mix improvements.
Key metrics through FY27:

EPS: Rs 74.2

Net Debt/EBITDA: 1.1x

RoCE: 13.6%

EV/EBITDA: 5.0x

Free cash flow expected to rebound from Rs 15 billion in FY25 to Rs 32 billion in FY27

The company holds Rs 140–150 billion in liquid assets and plans to fund Rs 450 billion in domestic capex without material leverage, with spending peaking in FY27 at Rs 160 billion.

Stock Outlook and Investment Levels

Target Price: Rs 800 | Current Market Price: Rs 661 | Upside Potential: ~21% | Rating: Buy

Support Levels: Rs 620

Resistance: Rs 690 / Rs 740

Breakout Zone: Rs 773 (52-week high)

Hindalco’s vision to transform itself into a global leader in sustainable engineered materials is underpinned by solid fundamentals, prudent capital allocation, and an evolving product mix that targets premium end-use markets. For long-term investors, the stock offers a compelling risk-reward balance with clear catalysts over the next 12–24 months.