Commodity market outlook- CapitalVia Global Research
Precious metal:- Gold prices internationally rose to a two month high on Thursday as a weaker dollar index and technical good buying levels supported the prices. U. S data like Building permit and Consumer sentiment can also move the prices in upside. On the COMEX division (U. S. market), Gold futures for September delivery rose 0.12% to USD1,362.70 per ounce in Asian trading on Friday. Gold future were likely to find support at $1315.40 a troy ounce and resistance at $1391.35 a troy ounce. In Indian market, Gold futures is continuing to climb higher from the last week as a down side in rupee against the dollar and RBI announced, to rise the import duty in precious metal has also effected the prices.
Over all, MCX Gold October future was consolidate and sustaining in a up trend for the entire week. So for the coming week 29725/29250 will act as a major support whereas 30800/31191 will act as a major resistance level in MCX Gold October future. For the next week in MCX Gold, trader can use buy on lower level strategy, if MCX Gold October future sustain above the levels of 30500 then it could test the levels 30650 /31000.
We expect Silver price also to follow the up trend in the market as higher import duty can further support the prices.
Technically, MCX Silver is also in consolidation and sustaining around higher levels. So, for the coming week 52447/55500 will act as major resistance levels where as 48300/46200. will act as major support in MCX Silver September futures. Last week MCX Silver September futures was sustaining around higher levels. For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if MCX Silver September futures sustains above 50200 then it could test the levels of 51650/ 53000.
Energy:- Crude prices internationally rose on Thursday as violence in Egypt stoked supply concerns over the Suez Canal and pushed prices higher. Supporters of President Mohamed Mursi attacked the governor's offices in Giza near Cairo and killed more than 500 people. Egypt declared a state of emergency after the violence. Protests at the Libyan oilfields continued which has reduced the exports by almost 50%. Lower than expected crude oil inventories also supported prices.
We expect crude prices to go up as supply concerns from Egypt and Libya can continue to push prices higher.
So, for the coming week 6471/6296 will act as major supports levels whereas 6880/7000 will act as major resistance in MCX Crude oil August futures. For the next week, trader can go for buy on lower level strategy, if MCX Crude August future sustain above 6700 levels then it could test the levels 6790/6950.
Base Metal:- Copper prices internationally rose on Thursday as a positive US data and Euro zone economy growth in the second quarter has boost the prices on higher levels. Base metals are likely to go up as optimism over demand from China and a weak dollar index amid strike concerns at the world's biggest copper mine are likely to support prices.
Trend of MCX Copper future is consolidate and also sustaining around higher levels. So, for the coming week, it could face major resistance of 475/490 whereas 457.20/445 could be a major support in MCX Copper. For the next week trader may go for buy on lower levels, if MCX Copper future sustain above 463 levels then it could test the level of 468/ 475 levels.