Forex Update

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 4.23.09

The EUR/USD is rallying slightly, awakening from its consolidative slumber earlier in the week. The currency pair hopped above our 2nd tier downtrend line, but is having difficulties with our 3rd tier uptrend line. Therefore, we're cautiously optimistic.

However, the EUR/USD has climbed over the highly psychological 1.30 level. The relative strength in the Euro comes after all of the manufacturing and services PMI data beat estimates. Though the number all indicate contraction, at least an upward swing in momentum is forming.

If the currency pair can sustain gains from present levels, then it may have something worthwhile to build from.

Gold Daily Commentary for 4.23.09

Gold is overcoming the opposing downward forces and is fighting with April 15 highs and the key psychological $900/oz level. The recovery in the precious metal is pretty incredible and the rally could really take off should gold climb comfortably above $900/oz.

The negative correlation with U. S. equities is in full swing and the precious metal is trading above our 3rd tier downtrend line after weaker than expected existing home sales and weekly unemployment claims. However, we don't expect bears to let gold get past $900/oz so easily.

EURO USD Forex Trading Tips and Analysis for Day Traders

GBP USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Rate gets slammed as stops and active selling from cross-spreaders break the rate under the 1.4440 support zone; retraces earlier gains to probe for stops in range. Rate likely to have stops building in-range to the upside now that downside stops cleared in a rush. Rate recovers ahead of the fix and regains the 1.4500 handle for most of the day but remains whippy.

Initial test of the psychological 1.5000 area now complete with the pullback likely about over as well and the rate is ready to try for the 1.5000 handle again. Rate likely to find buyers on any dip to the 1.4500 area as this was the breakout area. Rate tests the 50 day MA before recovering back to hold near the 100 day MA; aggressive traders can look to buy dips.

USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The USD suffered a violent whipsaw today first rising to highs during early New York trade before reversing to make lows against some pairs and end mixed. Rising to highs against the GBP, low prints were hit early as stops and aggressive selling dropped the rate to a low print 0f 1.4395 before short-covering and aggressive buying lifted the pair back to the 1.4500 handle to hold around 1.4510/20 area most of the day. Traders note middle-eastern names on the buy side around the 1.4420 area and slightly lower as the 50 day MA offered support helping the rate to reverse during the London fix.

USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 4.22.09

The USD/JPY is heading south as our 1st tier uptrend line and 2nd tier downtrend lines reach an inflection point despite a better than expected Trade Balance from Japan earlier today. Japan's Trade Balance showed slight improvements in exports, although nothing to pour champagne over.

We feel the Trade Balance data could be a lagging indicator as it may not reflect the present export environment. What we do see is a currency pair succumbing to its negative tendencies, following U. S. equities lower.