Forex Update

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 4.2.09

The GBP/USD catapulted after rising above our 2nd tier uptrend line, surging well beyond the psychological 1.45 barrier. In fact, the Cable peaked past our 3rd tier trend line before retreating as investors take profits before challenging March highs.

Britain continues to receive good economic data including yesterdays Manufacturing PMI and today's Construction PMI and Nationwide HPI numbers.

In other words, the manufacturing and construction industries are looking up in Britain while home prices are actually on the rise.

USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 4.2.09

The USD/JPY is so close to breaking out February highs investors can taste it. The long-fought battle may come to a conclusion today. The USD/JPY is finally building up some nice momentum, albeit slow.

The significance of these levels is displayed by the heavy consolidation taking place over the last 4 or 5 weeks. The currency pair is strengthening from our 2rd tier downtrend line with confidence.

However, before we get ahead of ourselves, we need to keep in mind the USD/JPY has given several head fakes in its return to 100. Investors are still hesitating sending the USD/JPY much higher because it would likely imply large near-term gains.

Gold Daily Commentary for 4.2.09

Gold threw us another curveball yesterday, reversing back to a negative correlation with the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Is it possible the precious metal's normal negative correlation with U. S. equities is coming back into play?

The price of Gold deteriorated over the last 24 hours before testing March lows and our 1st tier uptrend line. As we stated previously, we believe our 1st tier uptrend line to be the final straw for Gold's uptrend.

If this trend line can't hold, we could witness a rapid selloff. The S&P futures reflect the significance of the moment as the knock on the door of 2009 highs.

Crude Daily Commentary for 4.2.09

Crude futures are soaring higher from our 1st tier uptrend after weekly inventories came in lower than analyst expectations. Yesterday's improvement in U. S. housing and manufacturing data is exciting the rally as investors shrug off disappointing unemployment numbers.

Of most interest to crude traders was the news that auto sales this month did not decline as much as analysts had feared. Greater incentives and special deals offered by auto retailers are finally attracting new buyers as the U. S. Treasury fights to keep interest rates at a reasonable level.

Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 4.2.09

The rally in the 30 Year T-Bond futures faded yesterday after the U. S. released better than expected housing and manufacturing data, sending equities higher and treasury futures lower.

However, the 30 Year futures are recovering Thursday after the U. S. released more negative unemployment data. Hence, with the U. S. taking care of the excess supply of treasuries via quantitative easing, the 30 Year futures are falling in line with their ordinary negative correlation with the S&P futures.

The futures are struggling with the concept of retesting March highs. There's certainly a wide range the 30 Year futures have to deal with to the upside.

S&P Daily Commentary for 4.2.09

The S&P futures brushed aside negative unemployment data, piecing together an impressive rally on the back of better than expected existing home sales and manufacturing data.

The economic crisis began with the collapse of America's housing market, so stabilization in housing gives investors hope the worst of the economic crisis may be behind us.

Furthermore, improvement in the housing market gives investors confidence that the stimulus initiatives enacted by the U. S. government will be successful. In addition to the positively-mixed economic data, investors found comfort in a constructive meeting between America and China at the G20.

Pages