Base Metals Trading Strategy and Commodity Market Update: Nirmal Bang

aluminiumBase metals witnessed range bound trading session and ended the day with negative bias, Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell $150 to $4,390 per tone and metals like Zinc and Nickel also went down sharply.

Chinese buying for stockpiling purposes had helped push copper prices higher this year touching six-month peaks last week but Beijing's State Reserves Bureau may be done buying for now, having breached its target volume and given the current price levels. The global copper market was in a surplus of
112,000 tonnes in January-February, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) said on Wednesday. That figure compared with a deficit of 109,000 tonnes in the same period in 2008, the British-based consultancy said in its monthly report. Mine production of copper for Jan-Feb period was 2.507 million tonnes, which was 4 percent higher than in the same months of 2008.

Aluminium was in surplus by 425,700 tonnes compared with a surplus of 50,000 tonnes same period last year while the lead market was in surplus of
10,800 tonnes versus a deficit of 20,400 tonnes a year earlier. Zinc output outpaced use by 116,500 tonnes, the nickel and tin markets recorded a surplus of 2,600 tonnes and 39,000 tonnes respectively, according to WBMS.

Spot lead concentrate treatment charges paid by overseas sellers to Chinese smelters are likely to rise as top buyer, China, is cutting purchases in a bid to raise revenues, traders and analysts said on Wednesday. Falling oncentrate imports may limit Chinese lead smelters' metal production in coming few months and further cut the world's top lead producing nation's exports, which already fell 93 percent on the year to just 395 tonnes in March Reduced supply of imports could force smelters in China to cut production in the second half of the year given supply of locally produced concentrates was unlikely to surge if prices stayed below 15,000 yuan per tonne. hat would be more than 20 percent above Wednesday's prices in Shanghai, the executive said, adding low-grade mines, the majority in China, were making losses.

Copper if breaches Rs. 225 then only fresh selling is recommended rest of the base metals may trade sideways to up as any positive numbers from U. S. housing data tonight will support base metals prices. We recommend to buy at dips during the day.

Copper: Copper moved lower yesterday, however copper is found taking support at the middle line of the Bollinger Band, thus we recommend fresh selling in Copper only below 225 levels for target 218. Till then copper is expected to trade range bound between 225-232.

Zinc: Zinc prices are found to resist the 73.2 level for past two days, which was the support level earlier. Thus Zinc prices look weak below 73.2 levels. Selling is recommended at 73 levels for lower targets around 70.

Nickel: Nickel prices continue to fall downwards. Selling can continue below 588 in Nickel. Prices can take support at 560 levels. Breaking 560 levels, can push prices further lower to 545.

Lead: Lead prices closed near the opening yesterday forming a Doji, thus indecisiveness prevail in Lead.

General: 
Analyst Views: