Bajaj Housing Finance share price has been trading for almost a month in a narrow range. The stock has to decisively cross Rs 132 and a close above this level could lead to higher levels. The housing finance counter has declined 4 percent over the last six months. Bajaj Housing Finance Limited (BHFL), the Bajaj Group’s mortgage-lending arm, is posting enviable growth yet facing decidedly mixed market sentiment. Since listing at ₹150 in September 2024—more than double its ₹70 IPO price—the stock has climbed 70 percent above issue but still trades 17 percent below its debut peak. Solid fundamentals bolster the bull case: Q4 FY25 profit surged 55 percent year-over-year, AUM crossed ₹1.14 lakh crore and asset quality remains exemplary with net NPAs at just 0.11 percent. Even so, rich valuation multiples, looming margin pressure and a recent 64 percent unlock of insider shares keep many analysts on the sidelines.

Share-Price Journey: Premium Debut, Volatile Path

Listing metrics: launched at ₹150—114 percent above the IPO price—and rallied to a 52-week high of ₹188.50 before sliding to ₹103.10 in the post-lock-in sell-off. Current print: ₹121.98 (June 30, 2025), up 0.11 percent on the day, 70 percent above IPO but 17 percent under the listing level. Trading character: only 2.08 percent of sessions have seen intraday drops exceeding 5 percent, reflecting relative dampened volatility despite sensational headlines.

Q4 FY25 Scorecard: Growth Fires on All Cylinders

Housing loans represent 55 percent of the book; lease-rental discounting and LAP round out another 30 percent.

Capital-Market Events: QIP and Share Unlock

QIP: June 2025 raise capped at ₹5,000 crore; 12 crore shares allotted at ₹165.14, netting ₹2,006 crore for growth capital. Lock-in expiry: 529 crore shares—64 percent of equity—became freely tradable on 15 April. Promoters still hold 88.75 percent, limiting immediate free-float shock but elevating future liquidity risk.

Valuation Dashboard

• P/E (TTM): 46.9 ×
• P/B: 5.1 ×
• Market cap: ₹1.01 lakh crore
• EPS (TTM): ₹2.60
• Dividend yield: nil

Multiples sit at a hefty premium to housing-finance peers, feeding bearish arguments from global brokerages.

Street View: Bears Outnumber Bulls

Consensus: five sells, three buys, one hold—showing the split between valuation skeptics and growth optimists.

Technical Tape: Range Trade Until Catalysts Emerge

Support: ₹120 (5-day swing low). Resistance: ₹137–142 cluster; break could target ₹150. RSI: 61—neutral-to-firm momentum. MACD: recent bullish crossover, average 3 percent follow-through historically.

Growth Tailwinds vs. Headwinds

Tailwinds

• 25 percent AUM CAGR supported by housing-sector incentives.
• Net NPA at 11 basis points underscores disciplined underwriting.
• Bajaj brand equity plus digital-first origination model.

Headwinds

• P/E above 45 × leaves little margin for error.
• Rising competition from banks and fintechs could tighten spreads.
• High system-wide rates would crimp demand in a cyclical slowdown.

Investor Playbook

Short-term traders: exploit the ₹120–142 channel with strict stops; monitor lock-in float absorption. Long-term holders: accumulate only on material dips toward book-value support near ₹100–110, given lofty valuation. Event triggers: September-quarter NIM trend, any change in RBI housing-risk weights, management commentary on competitive pricing.

Investors Should Wait for Breakout from Range

Bajaj Housing Finance epitomizes the high-growth, high-valuation paradox. Earnings momentum and pristine asset quality argue for patience, yet the stock’s rich multiples and a wall of newly unlocked shares temper enthusiasm. Until margin direction becomes clearer, the market is likely to treat BHFL as a trading range rather than a runaway bull. Selective, valuation-conscious exposure looks prudent while awaiting clearer evidence that the lender can compound profit at a pace worthy of its premium tag.