Base Metals Market Update and Commodity Trading Strategy: Nirmal Bang

natural gasU. S. crude futures ended more than 4 percent higher on Thursday, rallying on news that the number of U. S. workers filing new jobless benefit claims fell for the third straight week, which reinforced hopes that the recession was easing. New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas futures, dragged up by a strong rally in crude, ended slightly higher on Thursday, but another bearish weekly inventory report and softer cash prices in the face of fairly mild U. S. weather helped limit the gains.

Most traders agreed Thursday's 124 billion cubic feet weekly natural gas storage build was bearish, noting it was well above the Reuters estimate of 114 bcf, last year's gain of 102 bcf and the five-year average rise for that week of 94 bcf.

The U. S. Energy Information Administration report showed that total domestic gas inventories climbed to 2.337 trillion cubic feet, a record high for this time of year. Inventories now stand at 546 bcf, or 30 percent, above last year and 22 percent, above the five-year average.

AccuWeather. com expects temperatures in the Northeast and Midwest, key gas consuming regions, to mostly average below normal for the next five days, with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s Fahrenheit not likely to generate much demand.

The National Weather Service eight- to 14- day outlook on Wednesday called for normal or below normal temperatures for most of the nation, with above seasonal readings expected only for Gulf Coast states from Texas to Florida.

Crude oil news triggered the upside not only in energy complex but also in base and precious metals complexes in the last trading day. We expect a further upside in energy complex We recommend buying Crude and Natural Gas at every dip during the day.

Crude prices moved higher yesterday, taking support at the previous low of 3102. Crude gave a new high of 3278 and managed to close near the high at 3261, indicating strength in prices. The RSI has moved down to 71.3 from the high of 79 on 02-June. The ADX still indicates uptrend in prices. Thus, one can buy crude at dips during the day at around 3235-50, targeting 3290 and 3330 on the upside.

Natural Gas moved lower, touching its previous low of 169. Natural gas completely retraced the movement from 201.9 by touching the previous bottom of 169 and closing above 180. Now the prices may move up after taking support at the earlier low of 169. One can buy Natural Gas near the low around 172-75, targeting 192-94 on the upside.