Base Metals Trading Tips and Commodity Market Update: Nirmal Bang
Base metal complex edged down sharply on the concerns of falling demand as weak economic outlook reined in speculation of a brisk global recovery in near future.
Copper 3M contract lost as much as $170 on LME and ended the day at $4470 taking clues from Chinese imports data which shows stocks are at record highs and thereby demand may dwindle in the future. The weak economic outlook by FED further added pressure on the prices.
Other base metals also lost ground in line with Copper and ended the day on a weak note.
China's imports of refined copper rose to a third straight record high in April, data confirmed on Friday, while Aluminum inflows more than quadrupled to a peak, a far greater rise than traders expected.
Imports of refined copper rose to 317,947 tonnes in April, up 7.1 percent from March's record of 296,843 tonnes and 148.9 percent from a year before, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.
Imports of primary aluminum surged to record 362,400 tonnes in April, up 321.6 percent from March's multi-year high of 85,965 tonnes and up more than 2,000 percent from a year before, despite China being the world's biggest producer of the metal.
Global nickel inventories are expected to fall significantly this year, as stockpiles that were built up over the past two years are being depleted by rising demand and lower production, an executive from Eramet, the world's sixth-largest nickel producer, said on Thursday.
BHP declined to comment on a newspaper report that it was in talks to sell an Australian nickel refinery.
Base metals complex is expected to remain subdued during the day following continuing appreciation in rupee, a fall in demand expectations as we have seen Chinese imports data showing stocks at record highs and no signs of a quick global recovery. Our view is sideways to down for the day in this omplex.
One can sell Aluminum at every rise as this metal’s inventories are at record highs at LME. Demand concerns are likely to cap the upside in base metals.
Copper prices have been moving down-wards for the past few sessions, after ADX and –DI gave hints of negative movement. Currently, Copper is seen taking support at the 212-213 levels. However, taking clues from MADC, which is moving closer to the Zero line, we can see a further downward movement in copper. Thus, one can sell Copper if prices breach 212 levels on downside during the day.
Zinc prices have dropped down breaking the upward trend, breaching the support line at 70 levels. Looking at the declining MACD, one can sell Zinc at rise around 69-70, with a Stop loss of 71, targeting 66.
Nickel prices continued falling but support at the Crucial levels of 572. Looking at the ADX and –DI, the prices are prone to breach the 572 levels during the day. Thus, one Should sell nickel below 572, targeting 555 in near term.
Lead also dropped breaking the support line at 68. Thus, Lead prices look negative at these levels. In addition, Lead Chart shows a Head and Shoulder Pattern in formation. Even the MACD is very close to the Zero line. Therefore, trend in Lead can turn negative, if it breaches the crucial support of 64 levels.