Base Metals Market Update and Commodity Trading Strategy: Nirmal Bang
Base metals complex remained weak during the day but got some support from the strong Pending Home sales data from U. S. in the latter half of the day. However, this complex closed marginally lower than the previous session.
Zinc lost the most in the session, shedding more than 2% on MCX and LME.
Shanghai copper opened slightly higher on Wednesday after modest falls in London in the previous session from a 7-½ month high, but growing optimism about the outlook for the world's economies supported prices above $5,000.
April U. S. pending home sales rose 6.7 percent, reinforcing more positive manufacturing data from around the world. U. S. autosales data remained grim. GM and Ford reported sales down by 40.9 percent and 35.8 percent in the year to May, and Chrysler's sales fell 45.5 percent.
Miner Rio Tinto sees a risk that the strong rally in copper prices may reverse over the next six to nine months. Canceled warrants -- metal set to leave warehouses -- increased to 40,175 tonnes from 36,700 tonnes in Copper in the previous session.
Zambia's state-run power utility is rationing electricity to its vital copper mines because a water weed, introduced from Brazil in the 1990s as a flower, has blocked flows into the biggest hydro power dam.
Base Metals: We expect base metals to move sideways to down during the day as we expect some consolidation to take place in this complex after a good rally. Even the strong Pending Home Sales data could not provide much support to base metals which strengthens our view of a consolidation in this complex.
Copper prices opened up higher but fell during the day and closed at 238.4. The MACD is in the positive territory, supporting bullish sentiments in copper. The ADX is also seen rising upwards confirming the uptrend. Looking at yesterday’s weak close, prices may lower to the levels of 232-234 on account of profit booking at higher levels.
This can be looked as buying opportunities in copper with a week’s outlook, targeting 248- 52 on the upside. For the day, if prices maintain the support at 238, then we may see copper inching up to 243-44 levels.
Zinc prices moved sideways yesterday, with new high and breaching the earlier low. Thus, the bias remains on downside for the day. Prices can fall lower on breaching the 73 on the downside. However, Zinc can be bought at lower levels around 70-71, which is the support area for medium term. One can buy Zinc either above 76 or in lower range between 70-71.
Lead prices are taking resistance at higher levels around 77-78. Thus, fresh buying can come in lead on breaching the 78 levels on the upside. if prices break 74.5 on downside, then prices may fall to 72-72.5 levels. This can be looked as buying opportunity with a week’s outlook.
Nickel prices are taking resistance at the higher levels. Profit booking can pull prices lower to 670-72 level. Thus, one can buy Nickel at this level, with a stop loss of 660, targeting higher levels of 695 and 700 in near term. The rising ADX and RSI also confirm the uptrend in Nickel.